[Bret L]

Unemployment Hits a 26-Year High—Time for An Immigration Moratorium!

"So gargantuan is America’s post-1965 immigration disaster that there is now an immigration dimension to every public issue—Health Care, infectious disease, mortgage fraud, crime, school overcrowding.

Nowhere is this more evident than in employment—and nowhere is the
phenomenon more pressing, given that unemployment has now reached a
level (9.7 percent—14.9 million unemployed) not seen since 1983.

Mainstream economists predict that unemployment will peak in a range
of 10 to 12 percent only sometime in 2010. Or later, or even higher—
depending on how skittish employers are in face of extraordinary
uncertainty.

Meanwhile, immigration is continuing at historically high numbers.
Estimates of 1.8 million per year translate to one hundred fifty
thousand per month, thirty five thousand per week, and five thousand
per day.

As usual, the federal government’s statistics on immigration’s impact
on employment are so fragmentary that it almost appears someone
doesn’t want to know. Specifically, the government does not release
monthly data on immigrant vs. native-born American employment.

To fill this information gap, in 2004 we unveiled our proprietary
effort to track American worker displacement: the VDARE.com American
Worker Displacement Index (VDAWDI). We tracked monthly growth of
Hispanic versus non-Hispanic employment, expressing both as an index
number of 100 as of the start of the Bush Administration in January
2001. We used Hispanics as a proxy for immigrant employment because
such a high fraction of working age Hispanics (54 percent) are
immigrants.

VDAWDI rose dramatically from January 2001 to late 2007, when it
reached 124.1. Then it stalled and finally began to decline when
employment collapsed in late 2008. But it is still some 20 percent
above 2001’s levels—that is, immigrant displacement of American
workers has not been reversed.

With legal immigration unabated, an increasing share of America’s
unemployed are either foreign-born or natives who have been displaced
by foreign-born workers.

Once a year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on immigrant
employment trends. Its 2008 report, released on March 26th of this
year, shows a significant rise in immigrant jobless—both in absolute
numbers and as a share of the total:

Employment and Unemployment by Nativity, 2007-08

((Graphs snipped for legibility-See Link))

SOURCE: BLS, unpublished tables.

There were 1.403 million unemployed immigrants in 2008, or about 16
percent of all jobless. Take away 16% from the current unemployment
rate (9.7%), and we are down to 8.1%. That’s the rate we had in the
first quarter of this year.

Unemployed immigrants are, obviously, a direct result of immigration.
But a potentially larger problem is the indirect fallout from
immigration: native-born Americans who have lost their jobs to
immigrants.

American worker displacement is another of the statistical “black
holes” of the labor force statistics. There are no readily available
estimates. The feds make no effort to estimate the damage—either on an
annual or a monthly basis.

The potential magnitude of worker displacement can be readily
described, however. Just compare the growth in immigrant employment to
native unemployment over the past decade:

Employment and Unemployment by Nativity, 1998 and 2008

Labor force status and
foreign-born status

((Graphs Snipped for Legibility-See Link))

From 1998 to 2008 foreign-born employment increased by 7.424 million.
Over the same period the ranks of US-born unemployed rose by 2.167
million. Question before the house: How much of the latter number is
attributable to the former?

Short answer: we just don’t know. But we can postulate a range of
plausible answers:

* If the displacement rate is 10%—i.e., one native made jobless
for every ten new immigrant workers—then 742,000 natives are currently
unemployed due to the past ten years of immigration.

* If it is 25%, then 1.856,000 natives are out of work due to the
past 10 years of immigration.

* At 50% displacement, 3,712,000 natives are currently unemployed
because of the last decade’s immigration.

* At 100% displacement, 7,424.000 natives are unemployed because
of the last decade’s immigration

In August 2009 the U.S. unemployment head count stood at 14,928,000.
The unemployment rate was 9.7%. Absent any rise in foreign-born
employment or unemployment since 1998—i.e., had a moratorium been
declared that year—those two figures would today be significantly
reduced:

*

At 10% displacement: 1.289 million fewer unemployed; 8.9 percent
unemployment rate
*

At 25% displacement: 2.403 million fewer unemployed; 8.1 percent
unemployment
*

At 50% displacement: 4.259 million fewer unemployed; 6.9 percent
unemployment
*

At 100% displacement, 7.971 fewer unemployed; 4.5 percent
unemployment

The Obama Administration has committed about two trillion dollars to
infrastructure projects, corporate bailouts, and tax cuts to boost
employment.

But it will not take, or even discuss, the most obvious step: an
immigration moratorium.

Why not?

And what is the GOP opposition waiting for?"

Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic
Consultants in Indianapolis.

http://www.vdare.com/rubenstein/090904_nd.htm

[Shhhh! I'm Listening to Reason!]

On Sep 5, 2:29*am, Bret L wrote:
Unemployment Hits a 26-Year High—Time for An Immigration Moratorium!

In Germany in 1929 the bad economy was blamed on the Jews.

Don't you guys ever learn, Bratzi?

[George M. Middius[_4_]]

Shhhh! said:

Unemployment Hits a 26-Year High—Time for An Immigration Moratorium!

In Germany in 1929 the bad economy was blamed on the Jews.
Don't you guys ever learn, Bratzi?

Maybe bussing tables at a chain restaurant would be a promotion for Bratzi.