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BretLudwig BretLudwig is offline
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Default India's Average IQ in 2100?

India's Average IQ in 2100?


"Several weeks ago, I posted a message by a commenter named Rec1Man, who

has been doing a lot of work to come up with a model of India's potential
average IQ. This is one of the most important questions for predicting the
course of the 21st Century.

The first edition of Lynn and Vanhanen's IQ and the Wealth of Nations
reported four studies from India from 1959-1986, with averages varying
only across a rather narrow range of 78-82.

On the other hand, as I've pointed out since 2002, India is the most
complicated country in the world, so it's hard to get a nationally
representative sample.

Further, the higher IQs registered by Indians in their diaspora, like the
higher IQs recorded by African Americans and West Indians compared to
Africans, suggests that better nutrition, health, education, and so forth
could raise the relative standing of Indians. After all, they've been
plagued by extreme poverty, which is starting to abate. For example, India
is particularly beset by lack of iodine in the diet, which is a relatively
easy IQ-lowering problem to deal with.

Rec1Man's goal has been to come up with a model that's simple enough to
comprehend. Lots of critics in the comments responded that his eight part
categorization of Indian demographics was too simple. As Einstein said,
Science should be as simple as possible, but no simpler.

Still, we need somewhere to start, so Rec1Man's model, after being refined
over the last few weeks, seems like a decent starting point.

First, here is fellow commenter Nsam's verbal summary of Rec1Man's
approach, followed by Rec1Man's latest quantitative summary:

Here is my attempt at a summary of rec1man's analyses. Edit as
required.

This eight-segment breakdown of the Indian population provides a more
accurate picture of the human resource potential of the Indian population,
compared to simplistic unimodal population model with mean IQ of 85 and SD
=15.

The Indian population can be grouped in terms of the four traditional
caste super-categories :

1. Brahmin
2. Merchant,
3. Peasant,
4.1 Dalit ("Untouchable")
4.2 Scheduled Caste
4.3 Low caste converts to Islam

cross-cutting with a

A. North vs.
B. South

geographical distinction.

Note: The usage of the 4 caste supercategories is not literal. For the
purposes of estimating national average IQ, Syrian Christians or Parsees
would be lumped in with the Brahmins, and the few peasant castes with a
literate tradition would be moved up to the merchant class.

The "Brahmin" and "Merchants" have had multiple generations of a
literate tradition and also engaged in professions that required greater
cognitive ability (memorization, calculation), compared to the "Peasants"
(who formed the ranks of the warrior class and had/have the most political
power) and Dalits (who also have the least amount of central-west
asian-european admixture and have been engaged in menial tasks on the
fringes of society). [As in the Cochran-Harpending model of the evolution
of high average Ashkenazi Jewish IQs, under Malthusian pressure, these
occupational slots are theorized to have selected for higher IQs. --
Steve]
This model posits an IQ penalty for North Indian groups as a result of
Islamic invasions/genocide of north Indian elites over a millennium.

Improvement in living conditions, nutrition, and access to education
is expected to increase mean IQ by 7.5 points by the end of this century,
relative to the Anglo-American average. India has the human resource
potential to be to be a developed society with advanced technological
capabilities by the end of this century. The cognitive elites of India
will primarily come from the Brahmin and Merchant super-categories and
numerically compare favorably with the other Asian superpower China.

And here's Rec1Man's latest summary table:

Current IQ

Southern Brahmin, 1% @ 120 IQ
Northern Brahmin, 4% @ 115 IQ
Southern Merchant, 3% @ 110 IQ
Northern Merchant, 12% @ 105 IQ
Southern Peasant, 8% @ 93 IQ
Northern Peasant, 32% @ 88 IQ
Muslim, 15% @ 75 iQ
Southern Dalit, 5% @ 75 IQ
Northern Dalit, 20% @ 75IQ

Avg = 86.10 IQ
Current Flynn for India is +7.8

Hypothesized Flynn effect for India in 21st Century:
Brahmins and merchants = +5
Peasants = +7
Muslims and Dalits = +10
The Flynn for Africa = +10

Future Indian IQ

Southern Brahmin, 1% @ 125 IQ
Northern Brahmin, 4% @ 120 IQ
Southern Merchant, 3% @ 115 IQ
Northern Merchant, 12% @ 110 IQ
Southern Peasant, 8% @ 100 IQ
Northern Peasant, 32% @ 95 IQ
Muslim, 15% @ 85 iQ
Southern Dalit, 5% @ 85 IQ
Northern Dalit, 20% @ 80IQ

Avg = 94

After Flynn
High End Indian IQ
Over 120 IQ = 55 mil
Over 130 IQ = 20 mil
Over 140 IQ = 5 mil

I certainly can't comment on the validity of the empirical details that
underlie this model -- India being so complicated -- but the general
approach seems not unreasonable to me. The point is to put a framework out
there for the public to consider.

One potential problem that jumps out at me with Rec1Man's approach,
though, is the potential for disparate fertility interfering with
improving environmental conditions. Are fertility rates the same across
all groups, or are lower IQ groups growing faster? The Bombay Parsis, who
were the most affluent and educated group in India for much of the 20th
century, are said to be imploding demographically. If IQ, education, and
declining fertility are correlated, then dysgenic / dyscultural effects
could undermine some of the gains from an improved environment.

Granted, we haven't seen much hard evidence of a dysgenic / dyscultural
relative effect yet. But, then, we haven't seen much hard evidence of a
positive Flynn relative effect. We've seen lots of evidence of an absolute
Flynn effect, but little evidence of countries shifting relative average
IQs, as I documented here. We've probably seen more evidence of relative
changes in height than relative changes in IQ."

http://isteve.blogspot.com/2008/06/i...q-in-2100.html

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